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勞動人口負增長下的改革突圍 2014年03月20日

       中國以往勞動年齡人口是正增長,但從2011年開始負增長,絕對數在減少。這一非常重大的轉折使得潛在經濟增長源泉發生了變化。
       當前勞動力市場很強勁。即使去年實現了7.7%的增長速度,比過去跌了很多,但我們去年上半年的真實失業率只有5%。考慮到過去測算的中國自然失業率大約4.1%,那周期性失業率不會超過一個百分點,即使有,也比較低。更直接的從官方勞動力市場信息來看,崗位數比求職人數還要多。另外,新增需要就業的人沒有離開勞動力市場的人多,也就是每年有更多的人退休,有較少的人在尋找工作。這也是就業市場上非常強勁的原因。
       在目前一切不變的情況下,未來經濟潛在增長速度會一路下跌。但如果我們實行了“單獨二孩”或者“二孩”更高一點的生育政策標準,能夠達到1.94的綜合生育率,同時做到了勞動參與率、人力資本水平以及全要素生產率的提高,就可以提高潛在增長率,帶來實實在在的人口紅利。
       中國的經濟改革和經濟增長不是互為消長的關系,也就是說,中國的改革不是增長抑制性的,而是可以帶來人口和改革的紅利。如果要為改革設出一個優先序,我想應該著眼于清除生產要素配置和供給的制度障礙,著眼于提高全要素生產率,讓那些能夠立竿見影帶來改革紅利的改革率先進行,這應該有利于攻克其他更難啃的“骨頭”。
       今年政府工作報告確定了7.5%的GDP增長目標,這是一個合理且能夠達到的目標。長期以來,我們都是從最壞的底線去著眼,但如能爭取更高增速就爭取,就如“十一五”期間確定的經濟增長目標為7.5%,實際增速差不多是10%;“十二五”期間確定的是7%,但每年目標都定在7.5%,留有余地。
       但總體來說,從2012年開始,我們實際上已經接受了可以低于8%的經濟增速,這和以前有了完全不同的意義。為什么現在可以接受8%以下或者7.5%的速度?而不再是口頭說7.5%,但實際上還是要“保八”?

369彩票
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